Saturday, March 18, 2017

चोर की नीयत रखो और चिल्लाओ चोर -चोर

दिलीप अवस्थी 

लखनऊ : कहते हैं कि चोर-चोर चिल्लाने वाला अक्सर खुद चोर की नीयत रखता है I डर तब और सताता है जब ऐसी नीयत रखने वाला खुद हुक्मरान हो सकता हो I 

उत्तर प्रदेश में भाजपा की अप्रत्याशित सफलता के बाद उठ रहे विचित्र विरोध के स्वर सुनकर कुछ ऐसा ही महसूस होता है I  दौलत की रानी मायावती, बड़बोले केजरीवाल , और  सकपकाई कांग्रेस ने इलेक्ट्रॉनिक वोटिंग मशीनों (ई वी ऍम ) को लेकर जिस तरह के सवाल उठाये हैं उनसे और कुछ नहीं तो राजनैतिक दिवालियेपन और संगदिली की झलक जरूर मिलती है I कुंठित अखिलेश यादव ने भी जांच होने  का समर्थन करके खुद को भी इस खेमे में शामिल कर लिया है I 

इन नेताओं और दलों ने यह भी सोचने का कष्ट  नहीं किया कि  सबसे पहले तो ईवीएम पर सवाल उठाकर वे चुनाव आयोग को कटघरे में खड़ा कर रहे हैं I  फिर साथ ही ये आरोप भी लगा रहे हैं की प्रधानमंत्री मोदी और अमित शाह ने चुनाव आयोग से वोटिंग मशीनों में धांधली करवा कर यह चुनाव जीत है I  दोनों ही सूरतों में एक मजेदार नज़रिया उभरता है I  आप जैसा खुद करते हो वैसा ही दूसरा करेगा यह मानते हो I 

क्या इन बयानों से यह समझा जाये कि अपने शासनकाल में कांग्रेस, मायावती और अखिलेश ऐसे ही अपना राज-काज चलाते थे ?  क्या सरकारी संस्थानों, सरकारी कार्यों, नौकरियों-तबादलों में ऐसे ही धांधलियां की जाती थी ?  क्या केजरीवाल दिल्ली में इसी तरह से सरकार चला रहे हैं? क्या इन नेताओं और राजनितिक दलों ने 2002, 2007, 2012और 2015 के चुनाव ऐसे ही जीते थे ?

अगर इन सवालों से बुरा लग रहा हो तो मेरी राय में हार को स्वीकार करना सीखो और क्यों हारे यह समझो I  हार स्वीकारोगे तो हार बहुत कुछ सिखाएगी वरना पाँच साल तक ऐसे ही खिसियाई बिल्ली की तरह खम्बा नोचते रहना I 


Saturday, March 11, 2017

Mayawati is disgraceful even in defeat

By Dilip Awasthi
Lucknow: Instead of sitting back and analysing the causes of humiliation in 2017 UP assembly elections, Daulat Queen Mayawati true to her personality is disgraceful in defeat. 

After indulging in the lowest level of mudslinging against rivals throughout her campaign,  the self-styled Dalit ki Beti refuses to concede that the Dalits have moved away from her and are now under the BJP's umbrella. The party has lost more than 60 seats over 2012 elections and its votes have gone down by nearly 7%.

But the blissfully oblivious Mayawati wants fresh elections in the state. In a press conference when the trends started indicating a two-third majority for BJP, loud-mouthed Mayawati, speaking extempore which she rarely does, charged: "Modi and Amit Shah have manipulated the EVMs in such a way that the BSP votes have also gone to the BJP". 

She went on and on with her new-found hilarious conspiracy theory and demanded that the election commission should set aside this election and hold a fresh one. She also wanted election commission to go back to the system of ballots and ballot boxes from now on. She kept levelling wild allegations least realising that if EVMs were tampered with than she is pointing her accusing fingers towards the election commission rather than the BJP leaders.

She questioned that how did the BJP perform well in the Muslim dominated areas. "Do you mean to say that Muslims also voted for BJP?", she asked. But that is what Mayawati is made off. She presented herself as a bull-headed autocrat who would keep ramming against the wall till her "Haathi"(elephant) fainted.

Friday, March 10, 2017

Even Politicians are conceding a split verdict

By Dilip Awasthi
Lucknow: Leave alone most of the exit polls, even political parties seem to be conceding a split verdict for 403 seats of the UP Vidhan Sabha elections. Only some believe that either SP or BJP might reach the magic majority mark.

But politicians have already started thinking in terms of forming the government in an alliance. The SP-Congress combine, according to exit polls, will fall short. Probably reacting to this possibility, chief minister Akhilesh told a news channel that his party would not be averse to getting support from his "Bua" (paternal aunt) Mayawati. "We are open to this idea as after all she is my Bua". Having said this Akhilesh obviously is indicating that he can seek BSP's support for repeating another term.

But then Daulat Queen Mayawati does is not amused, says one of her top aides.  "First of all she will never like to shake hands with SP and secondly she would like to be the CM herself rather than allowing Akhilesh another term". Mayawati's love for being at the helm is no secret as each time she has sought BJP's support, her first condition was chief ministership for herself. Every time she could strike this bargain sticking to this stand despite lesser numbers in the house than 

But this time BJP has other ideas. Given the strong dislike both PM Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah have for Mayawati and the kind of barbs they have exchanged with her during the poll campaign, the chances of an alliance between the two parties are remote. But as they say, there are no permanent enemies in politics. A senior central BJP leaders hints that in case BJP needs support, it can go to BSP but only on the condition that Mayawati will be the deputy CM.

Though a lot will depend on how it shapes when the results come in by March 11 noon, it looks as if this is going to be the first time that none of the parties seeking her support in 2017 will concede chief ministership for the Daulat Queen.

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

 Our Political Parties & their candidates

By Dilip Awasthi

Lucknow : As the countdown to the results of UP Vidhan Sabha elections begins, its worthwhile taking a look at what our main political parties - BJP, BSP, SP and Congress stand for as they fielded their chosen few to contest these crucial elections.

Daulat Queen Mayawati's party BSP, which stands for the downtrodden, excels in all formats. It has fielded the highest number of 150 candidates with criminal records. This accounts for 38% tainted candidates in the party fold. BSP wins the race by one percent against SP which has 37% criminals candidates, Despite Akhilesh's claim of refurbishing his party's image of the total 307 candidates he has fielded, as many as 113 have criminal cases going against them.

The BJP, which contested this election on the promise that it will end  SP's "Jungle Raj", is not far behind. Of the 383 candidates of BJP, as many as 137 (36%) have criminal cases pending against them. BJP, which always maintains a holier than thou attitude, will find this difficult to justify.  Congress party also has fielded criminals but it can boast to be the last of the major parties in the fray in this election. Of the 114 Congress candidates,  as many as 32% have criminal cases against them.

Interestingly the overall percentage of such candidates for 403 assembly seats is as low as 18%. Only 859 candidates of the total 4,823 fall in this category whereas the four main parties cross the 30% mark despite their tall promises and flowery manifestoes.

BSP also ranks on the top in fielding candidates with money-power as 335 (84%) candidates are crorepaties. BJP and SP have respectively fielded 79% such candidates and the Congress follows with 66% such candidates. More surprisingly 57 of BSP candidates who contested in 2007 also, increased their assets by 92% in their declaration submitted in 2017.

Nothing can possibly better prove the different masks these parties use to get to power.

Friday, March 3, 2017

Why Mayawati will not be the next UP CM

By Dilip Awasthi
After analysing why Daulat Queen Mayawati should not become the UP chief minister in 2017, it is time to figure out why she will not get to power this time. There has been lot of speculation in the media whether Mayawati's BSP was the dark horse in the run for UP Vidhan Sabha. Dark, yes but Mayawati will not even prove to be a mare in these elections.

Given that her honeymoon with social engineering is over, Mayawati is unlikely to get upper caste specially Brahmin votes (around 13%) which played a crucial role in bringing her to power in 2007. The Muslims voters (18%) were also crucial during that period as they were disillusioned by Mulayam Singh regime. They supported her in a big way and that is how she got 206 seats and 30.42% votes.

The fact that she has formed the government in UP thrice by shaking hands with the BJP in UP, has put off the Muslim voters in a big way. Though she fielded around 101 Muslim candidates as against 70 odd last time, Muslims have a clear aversion to the BSP as they do not want a situation of BJP attaining power in UP as well. There could be stray cases where they might favour a BSP Muslim candidate wherever the SP-Congress combine is not in a position to take on the BJP.  

Given this situation, Mayawati is left with just Chamar votes ( 40% of dalit votes) - a situation reminiscent of her "Tilak, Taraaju aur Talwar...."daays. Most of the other dalits like pasis, mauryas etc.. vote against the chamar majority as far as the dalit politics goes. Add to this partial Muslim votes and Mayawati's tally should be around 60-70 seats at best. He chances in the elections have been curtailed significantly before the start of the elections because BSP stalwarts like Swami Prasad Maurya (BSP Legislature Party chief), RK Chaudhry, Ramveer Upadhyay and half a dozen other left the party and joined hands with rivals. She was just left with Naseemuddin Siddiqui, who is ailing, as the only mainstream leader.

Her only chance to success is if BJP bails her out again. Given the attitudes of PM Modi and President Amit Shah, it is highly unlikely that they would agree to unpredictable Mayawati becoming the CM of the state specially with 2019 Lok Sabha elections not far away. Mayawati has used lot of venom against PM Modi and Amit Shah during her campaign. 

Though politicians shrug off these barbs exchanged during election campaigns, BJP will grope to find logics for supporting Mayawati yet again. The only political logic can be keeping Akhilesh-Rahul combine at bay or the moralistic logic would be the cliched "we-do-not-want-to-push-the-state-into-another-election".

Come March 11 and Mayawati's claims will all fall flat. But Mayawati will still stand a chance if she can find a new brother like Amit Shah on Bhaiya Duj'' after Holi. 

#Mayawati, # UP elections#, #PM Modi, #Amit Shah, #Akhilesh Yadav, #BSP, #BJP



Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Why Should Mayawati not become UP CM again

By Dilip Awasthi
Lucknow: For the first time Daulat Queen Mayawati has opted for such a blistering campaign all over, especially on the social media, to stake her claim to power in Uttar Pradesh. She has spent something in the region of Rs 300 crores on her makeover in the media. But rest assured she won't get there and more importantly she should not.

Let's first see why she should not rule UP again. She lasted full five-year term (2007-2012) and built stone monuments in some towns including Lucknow costing the state exchequer Rs 50 lakh of which at least 50% went into her coffers. She claims in her public meetings that law and order situation was much better in her regime compared to the present SP rule.

Debatable but given that it was a shade better but why and at what cost. Starting from her, her ministers, officials including the district magistrates and SPs had all become inaccessible for the common man. There was an impregnable iron curtain between the government and administration. It starts from the top. When the CM does not want to interact with people, his or her officials follow suit. So even if you have to lodge a complaint or FIR where do you go?

Mayawati ruled UP like an autocrat. There was a coterie a couple of BSP leaders and officials around her who would not let anybody get closer to the "Queen". This group completely dominated government political and administrative decisions. There were no interviews for the media and just twice she addressed formal press conferences in the five years. She would say whatever she had to and just get up and go without taking any questions. It was a written monologue and that is all.

January 15 was celebrated virtually as Mayawati would sit on an elevated platform all decked up with diamonds and expensive jewellery on her birthday. A cake equal to her weight was cut and distributed amongst party MPs, MLAs, leaders and officials who had to necessarily come with costly gifts or cash depending on their respective
status. Diamond jewellery used to fall short in supply in Lucknow and around a fortnight before this birthday bash.

Let's now examine how UP progressed in her regime. But for dalit housing, loans and grants, all other developmental schemes came to a standstill. Even roads were built where either BSP leaders or officials lived in Lucknow. The rest of the city commuted in carpet-bombed streets. 

More than a dozen industrial groups either pulled out of UP or slowed down their ongoing projects as for everything palms had to be greased to seek an interview with Mayawati, who in turn made unreasonable demands. Currency counting machines were installed at her residence for the donor's convenience. The most talked about case was that of Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Fresh. The group had such a trying experience that it could not return to UP till now. Many big builders just fled from UP during her regime.

Now in the present times, it is a known fact that demonetization has hurt the Daulat Queen the most. The BSP chief reportedly asked her assembly candidates to get Rs 50 lakh old currency notes exchanged into new if they wanted to contest on a BSP ticket. If she gets to power she would be in a much greater hurry to recover her huge "losses" following notebandi. So watch out !!!

#Mayawati, #Uttar Pradesh, #UP elections, #Uttar Pradesh Elecctions, #BSP, #Bahujan Samaj Party

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Satta bids prefer UP polls over Cricket series

By Dilip Awasthi

Lucknow: Even the ongoing India-Aussies Test series is not doing as well as crucial UP elections in the all-pervasive satta market.

Winning margins offered by the bookies on the two events tell the story. India winning the series gets the satory (gambler) just 40 paisa on rupee. This means that if he puts in rupee one on an India win he will get back Rs 1.40. If the satory plays for an Australia win, he gets Rs 1.60. 

These rates keep fluctuating as the series progresses and then more specific sattas like margin of victory in a match, margin in the series, best batsman, best bowler etc.are thrown for bidding. 

In case of UP election, as five phases of voting has already happened, the satta has become more specific. Who forms the next government : SP, BJP, BSP or hung house? Bookies are offering 20 paisa on SP victory, 25 paisa on BJP, 45 paisa on BSP and 10 paisa on hung house. This means the lesser the money offered the greater the chances of victory of that party or visa-Versa.

Along with this the bokkies are also offering a seat range and tha satory has to bid outside this range. This means that if the range offered by the bookie is achieved then the bookie wins or else the satory wins by biding on either side of the range. In this case the margins are fixed at 80 paisa as of now.

After the fifth phase the range being offered by the bookies is SP-Congress 185-190, BJP 125-130 and BSP 60-65. These figures belong to the bookie which means that if the final tally matches this the bookie wins. Suppose the satory bids for SP 184 and below and 191 seats and more he wins 80 paisa on every rupee. given above. 

To say that satta markets are a prediction of some kind would be wrong but it surely can be treated as an indication. Surely a lot of homework goes in by the organisers of th satta markets because stakes are very high as more than Rs 1,000 crore will exchange hands when the results come out. The final figures which the bookies will offer will come on the day of the last phase. After this the satta woul;d played in full steam till the results come in.