Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Why Should Mayawati not become UP CM again

By Dilip Awasthi
Lucknow: For the first time Daulat Queen Mayawati has opted for such a blistering campaign all over, especially on the social media, to stake her claim to power in Uttar Pradesh. She has spent something in the region of Rs 300 crores on her makeover in the media. But rest assured she won't get there and more importantly she should not.

Let's first see why she should not rule UP again. She lasted full five-year term (2007-2012) and built stone monuments in some towns including Lucknow costing the state exchequer Rs 50 lakh of which at least 50% went into her coffers. She claims in her public meetings that law and order situation was much better in her regime compared to the present SP rule.

Debatable but given that it was a shade better but why and at what cost. Starting from her, her ministers, officials including the district magistrates and SPs had all become inaccessible for the common man. There was an impregnable iron curtain between the government and administration. It starts from the top. When the CM does not want to interact with people, his or her officials follow suit. So even if you have to lodge a complaint or FIR where do you go?

Mayawati ruled UP like an autocrat. There was a coterie a couple of BSP leaders and officials around her who would not let anybody get closer to the "Queen". This group completely dominated government political and administrative decisions. There were no interviews for the media and just twice she addressed formal press conferences in the five years. She would say whatever she had to and just get up and go without taking any questions. It was a written monologue and that is all.

January 15 was celebrated virtually as Mayawati would sit on an elevated platform all decked up with diamonds and expensive jewellery on her birthday. A cake equal to her weight was cut and distributed amongst party MPs, MLAs, leaders and officials who had to necessarily come with costly gifts or cash depending on their respective
status. Diamond jewellery used to fall short in supply in Lucknow and around a fortnight before this birthday bash.

Let's now examine how UP progressed in her regime. But for dalit housing, loans and grants, all other developmental schemes came to a standstill. Even roads were built where either BSP leaders or officials lived in Lucknow. The rest of the city commuted in carpet-bombed streets. 

More than a dozen industrial groups either pulled out of UP or slowed down their ongoing projects as for everything palms had to be greased to seek an interview with Mayawati, who in turn made unreasonable demands. Currency counting machines were installed at her residence for the donor's convenience. The most talked about case was that of Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Fresh. The group had such a trying experience that it could not return to UP till now. Many big builders just fled from UP during her regime.

Now in the present times, it is a known fact that demonetization has hurt the Daulat Queen the most. The BSP chief reportedly asked her assembly candidates to get Rs 50 lakh old currency notes exchanged into new if they wanted to contest on a BSP ticket. If she gets to power she would be in a much greater hurry to recover her huge "losses" following notebandi. So watch out !!!

#Mayawati, #Uttar Pradesh, #UP elections, #Uttar Pradesh Elecctions, #BSP, #Bahujan Samaj Party

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Satta bids prefer UP polls over Cricket series

By Dilip Awasthi

Lucknow: Even the ongoing India-Aussies Test series is not doing as well as crucial UP elections in the all-pervasive satta market.

Winning margins offered by the bookies on the two events tell the story. India winning the series gets the satory (gambler) just 40 paisa on rupee. This means that if he puts in rupee one on an India win he will get back Rs 1.40. If the satory plays for an Australia win, he gets Rs 1.60. 

These rates keep fluctuating as the series progresses and then more specific sattas like margin of victory in a match, margin in the series, best batsman, best bowler etc.are thrown for bidding. 

In case of UP election, as five phases of voting has already happened, the satta has become more specific. Who forms the next government : SP, BJP, BSP or hung house? Bookies are offering 20 paisa on SP victory, 25 paisa on BJP, 45 paisa on BSP and 10 paisa on hung house. This means the lesser the money offered the greater the chances of victory of that party or visa-Versa.

Along with this the bokkies are also offering a seat range and tha satory has to bid outside this range. This means that if the range offered by the bookie is achieved then the bookie wins or else the satory wins by biding on either side of the range. In this case the margins are fixed at 80 paisa as of now.

After the fifth phase the range being offered by the bookies is SP-Congress 185-190, BJP 125-130 and BSP 60-65. These figures belong to the bookie which means that if the final tally matches this the bookie wins. Suppose the satory bids for SP 184 and below and 191 seats and more he wins 80 paisa on every rupee. given above. 

To say that satta markets are a prediction of some kind would be wrong but it surely can be treated as an indication. Surely a lot of homework goes in by the organisers of th satta markets because stakes are very high as more than Rs 1,000 crore will exchange hands when the results come out. The final figures which the bookies will offer will come on the day of the last phase. After this the satta woul;d played in full steam till the results come in.


Saturday, February 18, 2017

Might seems Right for BJP Now

By Dilip Awasthi
Lucknow: Might is right seems to have become BJP's motto now. The party which calls SP a "Goonda Party" leads the tally of candidates with criminal cases pending against them  in the first four phases of UP elections.
According to analysis of candidates profile for first four phases released by Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), of the total 260 seats which the BJP is contesting its candidates in 85 (33.2%) constituencies have active criminal cases pending against them. These include heinous cases of crime against two dozen BJP representatives in these elections.
BJP is closely followed by BSP which is contesting 260 seats and has fielded 86 (33.07%) tainted nominees. BJP's  Goonda Party comes third in the table as 62 of its 194 candidates - 31.7% - have criminal cases being tried against them. Down and out Congress  with 25 of the 81 candidates is also maintaining the 30% reservation mark for criminals in the contest.
Along with muscle power, the BSP outshines its rival in money power as well, Dalit queen Mayawati's 260 candidates , as many as 225 (865%) have declared a wealth of more than a crore rupees. There are more than a 20 who have crores in double and triple digits. It is believed that the BSP tickets for elections usually come with a price-tag. Obviously the candidates have to be rich enough to buy them off the shelf and also contest elections after that.
SP and BJP are not far behind here too. SP has 162 (83.5% and BJP has 208 candidates (81.2%) who are crorepatis. Considering their backgrounds and that they do not claim to be a party of "have-nots", the BJP and SP may have a justification but how would the Dalit party like to react?
The cleanest slate is that of Independent candidates as of the 834 in the frey only 88 (10.5%) have criminal records as declared by them in their respective affidavits. The Independents have just 128 crorepatis (15.8%). They actually could be our future role-models who are closer to the common man. Otherwise whatever the bigger parties might claim and show, the facts clearly spell out they believe in both money and muscle power.

#Akhilesh Yadav, #SP, #Samajwadi Party, #BJP, #BSP, #Congress, #UP Elections, #Uttar Pradesh, #CM UP

Friday, February 17, 2017

This Picture is discomforting


 by Dilip Awasthi

Most people even BJP and BSP leaders ask if UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav was so confident about his government's achievements why did he opt for an alliance with Congress and Rahul Gandhi? In 2017 when UP is going to elect its new government, a pre-poll alliance with a party like Congress which just got 28 seats in 2012 assembly electionsfor 11%  votes and was wiped off by the Modi wave in the Lok Sabha elections 2014, would obviously puzzle anybody.

Voters in UP might not be as perplexed by this combination as leaders of the rival parties and also Akhilesh's father Mulayam Singh. Akhilesh himself smiles and äsks,"If it is a "nothing"alliance why is everybody (politicians) so concerned ?". True and if eyebrows are being raised by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, then the question mark facing this alliance needs to be answered.

In his couple of rallies in Kannauj and Barabanki earlier this week, Modi played up the issue of this "opportunistic"alliance. He devoted a significant part of his speeches to underline that Akhilesh had tied up with the party which organised a "life threatening"attack on his father Mulayam Singh. Modi went on to elaborate that the Congress Party was behind the attack on Mulayam Singh in 1984. "Then Atalji and Chowdhry Charan Singh had  come to Mulayam Singh's rescue by ensuring his security". Actually Akhilesh is still a novice in politics, Modi went on, and he will only play in the hands of Congress till it wants. Then it will dump him. "Seasoned politician Mulayam Singh is very upset with this alliance", Modi said.

Either Modi did not check his facts or deliberately chose to conceal the latter part of the story. True that in March, 1984 Mulayam;s vehicle was sprayed with bullets in Mykhera village of Mainpuri, his happy hunting ground and constituency. Mulayam had lodged an FIR naming a strong Congress Minister late Balram Singh Yadav behind the conspiracy. Trues that Atal Behari Vajpai and Chowdhry Charan Singh were instrumental in getting Z category security for Mulayam after this incident.

Now comes the interesting part of the story. The then chief minister Beer Bahadur Singh had ordered the Home Department to inquire into the case. After around three months of investigation, the Home Department released its findings that the attack in which Mulayam Singh did not sustain any injury was staged-managed to get z category security which the politician had been demanding from the government for sometime and his requests were turned down on two occasions. Several other details were provided to substantiate the findings which were reported by me (in The Times of India) and my friend and senior Gyanendra Sharma (in Navbharat Times).

Akhilesh reacting to Modi's speeches about the alliance, said that he is just trying to create a misunderstanding between me and my father but would surely not succeed. Coming back to the question why Akhilesh went for this alliance and more interestingly why are rivals including PM Modi so concerned would call for another blog. Wait till tomorrow.... 

Thursday, February 16, 2017

चुनाव के लिए कुछ भी करेगा

दिलीप अवस्थी

कहते हैं चुनाव तब लड़ो जब गधे को भी बाप बनाने का दम रखो I  वैसे तो रिश्ते नितांत निजी मसला होते हैं लेकिनद चुनाव मैं तो सबके चरण देवता तुल्य नज़र आते हैं I

बस यह संयोग  ही है की अपनी बात कहने की लिए जो दो फोटो अच्छी लगी वे अपर्णा (बिष्ट) यादव की हैं और और बिलकुल ताज़ा यानि कल यानी फरवरी 15 की हैं I  लेकिन यह दृश्य किसी भी पार्टी के मंच पर देखे जा सकते हैं I  एक फोटो में अपर्णा अपने ससुर मुलायम सिंह के पैर छू  रही हैं तो दूसरी में जेठानी डिंपल यादव केI

क्या ही अच्छा हो की ऐसे बड़े और छोटे के सम्बन्ध चुनाव के बाद भी बने रहें I लेकिन चुनाव  में तो पैर चुने का मकसद दिखावा ही होता है I  जग ज़ाहिर है की अखिलेश यादव और  उनके सौतेले भाई प्रतीक एकदूसरे से मिलना छोड़ देखना भी पसंद नहीं करते हैं I  घर की खाने की मेज़ पर भी तब आते हैं जब दूसरा जा चुका हो I इसी तर्ज़ पर देवरानी-जेठानी भी एक दूसरे की  परछांई से भी दूर रहना चाहती हैं I

लेकिन कल जब डिंपल अपर्णा की चुनावी सभा में पहुंची तो देवरानी ने मंच पर ही उनके लपक कर पाँव छुए I  डिंपल ने भी वोटरों से अपील की क़ि उनकी देवरानी बड़ी कर्मठ है और उसे जिताओ तो खूब काम करेगी I  इसी तरह जब मुलायम सिंह अपर्णा की एक दूसरी सभा में पहुचे तो छोटी बहु ने फिर फिर मंच पर ही उनके पैर पकड़ कर आशीर्वाद लिया I  जनता में बैठे एक बुढऊ बोले, "अरे कम से कम सर तो ढक लेतीं बहुरानी I " लेकिन लोगों का क्या, उनका तो काम है कहना I

मुलायम सिंह ने अपर्णा की जोरदारी से प्रशंसा की और कहा, "मेरी बहु ने बहुत काम किया है, उसे जीता जरूर देना, इज़्ज़त का सवाल है I" जनता में से ही एक सज्जन कह उठे, "अरे नेताजी बहु से इतना काम क्यों करवाते हो ?"अपर्णा  चुनाव में पूरी ताकत से तो नज़र आती है लेकिन उनका लोगों से संपर्क न के बराबर है क्योकि या तो वह बारे नेताओं से घिरी रहती हैं या फिर हटो-हटो करती सिक्योरिटी से I

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bari Didi versus Choti Bahu

By Dilip Awasthi

Tables have turned for Lucknow Cant seat in this Vidhan Sabha election. This seat has been shuttling between the BJP and the Congress in the past couple of elections. Congress won it in 2012 the candidate who qon it for the Congress is contesting as a BJP nominee. On the other hand Samajwadi Party, which has had almost no say here, is contesting as BJP's main rival with Congress support of course. Comp;icated isn't it ?

Let's first add a little more to your confusion. The two women contestants are reffered by the voters as "Bari Didï" and "Choti Bahu". One is daughter of a former heavy weight UP chief minister and the other is daughter-in-law of another former chief minister and also step sister-in-law of the present chief minister. Is politics just a dynastic affair?

Enough of puzzles, welcome to the contest between Rita Bahuguna Joshi (67), daughter of Hemwati Nanadan Bahuguna, the sitting Congress MLA from this seat who has crossed over to the BJP and Aparna (Bisht) Yadav (26), Mulayam Singh Yadav's daughter-in-law and SP candidate, who is mostly surrounded by Congress leaders when she is campaigning. Rita Bahuguna Joshi is a seasoned politician, and is a professor at the University of Allahabad. She has been a Congress leader for last 24 years and has held positions of Mayor of Allahabad, National President of Mahila Congress (2003-2007) and State president of Congress (2007-2012). She joined BJP in 2016. For her five year term she has really worked hard and has nursed her constituency well.

Aparna Yadav, on the other hand is Mulayam Singh's "Choti Bahu". It starts and ends here. After her initial schooling in Lucknow, she studied in London where Prateek, Mulayam Singh's second son from his second wife was also studying. Both got involved in an affair and later got married. Akhilesh,  Mulayam's elder son from his first wife, and Prateek are like two poles of a magnet. They repel and never meet. Even in family function one arrives but the other leaves just in time. The Choti Bahu also does her part. She goes and publicly touches BJP leader Rajnath Singh's feet, issues statements which make chief minister Akhilesh cringe and finds Congress leaders more amicable than the SP bandwagon. Aparna started working in this constituency a little late as she was not sure that she would get SP's ticket though her father-in-law had announced it a couple of months ago.

In the 2012, Rita Joshi won this seat as Congress candidate by a comfortable margin of 21,000 votes against BJP. This time around, Joshi has herself switched loyalty and is contesting as a BJP candidate. This seat with 1.73 lakh voters is dominated by around 78,000 Brahmins, 36,000 Thakurs and a significant Pahari (Hill) population. Rita Bahuguna Joshi is a Pahari Brahmin and Aparna in her maiden days was a Pahari Thakur.

A high-pitched campaign is on for this seat which will go to polls next Sunday.        

चुनाव चौराहों तक उतरी पारिवारिक कलह

 दिलीप अवस्थी 

मुलायम परिवार की भितरघात अब महल से निकल कर चुनावी  चौराहों पर आ गयी है I चाचा -भतीजे के बीच शीतयुद्ध अब मुखर हो चला है I मुखिया मुलायम सिंह बस मूक दर्शक बने कभी अपने भाई तो कभी अपनी छोटी बहु को रिझाने में जुटे रहते हैं I उनकी तरफ से अखिलेश के हिस्से में लताड़  ही आती है I 

अब आप  एक बार इटावा और उसके आसपास लगे पोस्टरों  को निहारिये बात साफ़ हो जाएगी I  पोस्टर में या तो शिवपाल सिंह नज़र आएंगेया  शिवपाल और मुलायम I न तो मुख्यमंत्री अखिलेश का कहीं पता है और न ही किसी और नेता का I  हाँ सपा की सायकिल जरूर नज़र आएगी I 

पिछले दो दिनों से जसवंतनगर सीट, जहाँ से शिवपाल चुनाव लड़ रहे हैं, का मुलायम सिंह ने सघन दौरा किया और घर घर जाकर अपने भाई के लिए वोट मांगे I  कई चुनावी सभाएं संबोधित करते हुए मुलायम ने शिवपाल को भारी मतों से जिताने कीअपील की I  यहाँ तक कहा की समझ लेना मैं खुद चुनाव लड़ रहा हूँ I 

यह भी कहने से मुलायम नहीं चुके कीसरकार तो सपा की ही थी लेकिन अगर कोई नाराज़गी हो तो भूल जाना, माफ़ कर देना I  क्या करें हम तो अखिलेश के मंत्रियों से लोगों के काम करने की चिरौरी ही करते रहे पर इनमंत्रियों ने कुछ नहीं किया I  अखिलेश से भी शिकायत की और जब शिवपाल को हटाया तो हमने बहुत समझाया पर बात बेकार गयी I   अब क्या करें वह भी तो हमारा लड़का ही है I 

उधरलखनऊ की कैंट सीट से भाजपा की रीता बहुगुणा जोशी के खिलाफ चुनाव लड़ रही अखिलेश के सौतेले भाई प्रतीक की पत्नी अपर्णा (बिष्ट)) यादव भीअपने चर्चित बयानों के कारण सपा के कोपभाजन का सामना कर रही हैं I  पहाड़ी ठाकुर परिवार से सम्बंधित अपर्णा ने अपनी चुनावी सभा में कह डाला कि  देश में अब आरक्षण जातिगत न हो कर स्थितिगत यानी गरीबी आधारित होना चाहिए I बात अपने आप में काफी दमदार है पर सपा की राजनीति  के खिलाफ बैठती है I  पार्टी ने भी उन्हें आदेश दे दिया की वह नीतिगत मामलों परबयान न देकर केवल अपने चुनाव तक ही सीमित रहें I 

मुलायम की बहु के लिए इस सीट से जीतना आसान नहीं होगा क्यों की कांग्रेस की पूर्व अध्यक्ष रीता बहुगुणा जोशी यहाँ से पिछली बार जीती थी I  इस बार वह भाजपा की प्रत्याशी हैं i इस क्षेत्र मेंउन्होंने काफीमेहनत की है जबकि अपर्णा बिलकुल नया चेहरा हैं I मुलायम सिंह की बहु होने के बाद भी उनके मंच पर कांग्रेसी नेता ज्यादा और सपाई नेता कम नज़र आते हैं I  हालाँकि इटावा से आकर ससुरजी अपर्णा के लिए भी चुनावी सभा करने वाले हैं I 

Monday, February 13, 2017

ग़लतफहमी न पैदा कर दे पहला चरण


दिलीप अवस्थी 

भारतीय जनता  पार्टी  11   फरवरी को हुए  पश्चिमी  उत्तर प्रदेश  में हुए मतदान से  बहुत प्रसन्न नज़र आ  रही है I भाजपा  के रास्जतरिया अध्यक्ष अमित शाह तो यहाँ तक कह रहें हैं कि  पहले चरण मैं उनकी पार्टी को 50  से अधिक सीटें मिल जाएँगी I लेकिन पहले चरण को देख कर भाजपा ग़लतफहमी न पाले तो उसके लिए अच्छा रहेगा I 

पहले चरण मैं पश्चिमी उत्तर प्रदेश की कुल73 सीटों पर व् मतदान हुआ I यह इलाका ऐसा हैं जहाँ समाजवादी पार्टी की कभी भी पकड़ नहीं रही है I  कांग्रेस पार्टी भी यहाँपूरे प्रदेश की तरह कमजोर ही है Iपॉचमनचल मैंमुख्यतः भाजपा, बसपा और राष्ट्रीय लोकदल (रालोद ) मैं संघर्ष होता रहा हैं I कई प्रदेश नेताओं की बगावत और मायावती के अकेले पड़ने के बाद बसपा हर कहीं कमजोर पड़ी है I रालोद का भी प्रभाव कुछ ही जिलों मैं है I ऐसे मैं पश्चमी उत्तर प्रदेश मैं भाजपा का बोलबाला हो जाये तो कोईबड़ी बात नहीं है I 

इसी तरहबुंदेलखंड की21 सीटों पर भी सपा की साइकिलपंक्चर ही हो जाती है I यहाँ बसपा का बोलबोला रहता है और भाजपा टक्कर देती है I शहरी सीटों पर तो भाजपा का जोर रहता है लेकिन ग्रामीणक्षेत्रों मैं बसपा का हाथी बिना रोकटोक के चलता है I कभी यहाँ कांग्रेस भी दम से लड़ा करती थी लेकिन अब हालात बस गुज़ारे लायक हैं I सपा तो यहाँ की लड़ाई में नंबर दो से चार पर रहती है I 

लेकिन प्रदेश की असली लड़ाई तो पूर्वी उत्तर प्रदेश, मध्य उत्तर प्रदेश और रुमें होती है I  इनक्षेत्रों की309 सीटों में जिसने बढ़त बना ली वह सिकंदर बन जाएगा I भाजपा बिना मुख्यमंत्री के चेहरे और सशक्त राज्य नेताओं के चुनाव में उतरी है I  जबकि भाजपा ने लोगों का खोया विश्वास काफीहद तक जीता है, उसके लिए यहाँ लड़ाई आसान नहीं होगी I  बसपा तो पहले से ही कुम्हलाई हुई है और उसकी सोशल इंजीनियरिंग भी उसका साथ नहीं दे रही है I यूँ तो बसपा ने मुसलमानो को101 सीटों पर लड़ाया है लेकिन यहडर कि मायावती चौथी बार भी भाजपा से हाथ मिला सकती हैं, बसपा से मुस्लिमों को दूर रख सकता है I 

इसके विपरीत अखिलेश कीस्वच्छ छवि , युवा हौसला और कुछ अच्छे कार्यों को धरातल पर लाने का जोश उन्हें निश्चित ही लड़ाई में थोड़ी बढ़त देता है I वैसे  तो  गणित का चुनाव में ज्यादा मतलब नहीं होता लेकिन कांग्रेस से मिलने के बाद दोनों पार्टियों का2012 का मत प्रतिशत41 % हो जाता है. पिछले चुनाव में सपा को 29. 5 % वोट मिले थे तो उसने224 सीटें मिली थीं जबकि बसपा ने25 % मत पाकर 80  सीटें जीती और भाजपा ने15 % वोट लेकर47 सीटों पर जीत दर्ज की थी I सपा पूर्ण बहुमत पाकर 77 सीटों पर संघर्ष में दूसरे स्थान पर और 56 सीटों पर तीसरे स्थान पर रही थी I 

2014 में मोदीजी के उद्भव के बाद भाजपा की स्थिति में फर्क जरूर आया हैलेकिन  अकेले उनकी छवि के सहारे विधान सभा का जीतना आसान न होगा I  फिर नोटबंदी से फैली नाराज़गी भी भाजपा को झेलनी पड़  सकती है I  प्रदेश में अखिलेश राज के पांच वर्षों में भाजपा की निष्क्रियता भी उसे लाभ तो नहीं ही दे पायेगी I  ऐसे में अखिलेश का पलड़ा भारी पड़े तो कोई बड़ी बात न होगी I 



Sunday, February 12, 2017

Misplaced Buoyancy in BJP

 By Dilip Awasthi
Buoyancy in the BJP after the polling in the first phase of UP elections on might be a little misplaced. Even party's national president Amit Shah seemed jubilant considering the high 64% voting in Western UP which went to polls on February 11. "BJP is sweeping west UP", he said  in an election meeting for the second phase yesterday.

But considering the fact that western UP or the Jat Land as the region is commonly refereed to has never been Samajwadi Party's happy hunting ground. Eversince Comgress paralysis in UP, the contest in this region has been restricted between Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), BJP and BSP. The BSP finds itself on a slippery wicket this time as the party has been deserted by most of its top state leaders.

BJP is fighting for honors in this region mainly against BSP and RLD. The leaders think that the additional 5% turnout would in a big way go in their favour. The RLD had contested 43 seats in the hardcore Jatland and had won 8 out of them in 2012 assembly elections. The BSP abd BJP contest all of the 73 seats in this region. Considering the overall scenerio, BJP gains in this region are highly likely  but in the final run how much this would matter is the mute question.

Like the Jatland, Samajwadi Party has had a poor run in the 21 seats of the Bundelkhand region as well. It is in banking on Congress candidates, who had some say in the past, in these regions. Nut in Bundelkhand also BJP and BSP will fight for the honors.

Coming to the three core regions - East UP, Rohilkhand and Central UP, the SP roots are well entrenched. BJP and also the BSP would need whatever they have got to fight the SP in these regions. The 309 seats in these region of the total 403 seats will decide who will rule UP. 

The BJP lacks a chiefministerial face though it has a fair amount of mind share of voters.  The BSP, sans some of its top state leaders, may not get as much Muslim support as it thinks it will (101 Muslims candidates)  because of the fear that Mayawati would join hands withe BJP for the fourth time. Both these party's  might find the going tough. Akhilesh on the other hand is backed by his own image, his youthful energy and some good works he has done in the state, would  give them a run for their money.