Thursday, February 16, 2017

चुनाव के लिए कुछ भी करेगा




दिलीप अवस्थी

कहते हैं चुनाव तब लड़ो जब गधे को भी बाप बनाने का दम रखो I  वैसे तो रिश्ते नितांत निजी मसला होते हैं लेकिनद चुनाव मैं तो सबके चरण देवता तुल्य नज़र आते हैं I

बस यह संयोग  ही है की अपनी बात कहने की लिए जो दो फोटो अच्छी लगी वे अपर्णा (बिष्ट) यादव की हैं और और बिलकुल ताज़ा यानि कल यानी फरवरी 15 की हैं I  लेकिन यह दृश्य किसी भी पार्टी के मंच पर देखे जा सकते हैं I  एक फोटो में अपर्णा अपने ससुर मुलायम सिंह के पैर छू  रही हैं तो दूसरी में जेठानी डिंपल यादव केI

क्या ही अच्छा हो की ऐसे बड़े और छोटे के सम्बन्ध चुनाव के बाद भी बने रहें I लेकिन चुनाव  में तो पैर चुने का मकसद दिखावा ही होता है I  जग ज़ाहिर है की अखिलेश यादव और  उनके सौतेले भाई प्रतीक एकदूसरे से मिलना छोड़ देखना भी पसंद नहीं करते हैं I  घर की खाने की मेज़ पर भी तब आते हैं जब दूसरा जा चुका हो I इसी तर्ज़ पर देवरानी-जेठानी भी एक दूसरे की  परछांई से भी दूर रहना चाहती हैं I

लेकिन कल जब डिंपल अपर्णा की चुनावी सभा में पहुंची तो देवरानी ने मंच पर ही उनके लपक कर पाँव छुए I  डिंपल ने भी वोटरों से अपील की क़ि उनकी देवरानी बड़ी कर्मठ है और उसे जिताओ तो खूब काम करेगी I  इसी तरह जब मुलायम सिंह अपर्णा की एक दूसरी सभा में पहुचे तो छोटी बहु ने फिर फिर मंच पर ही उनके पैर पकड़ कर आशीर्वाद लिया I  जनता में बैठे एक बुढऊ बोले, "अरे कम से कम सर तो ढक लेतीं बहुरानी I " लेकिन लोगों का क्या, उनका तो काम है कहना I

मुलायम सिंह ने अपर्णा की जोरदारी से प्रशंसा की और कहा, "मेरी बहु ने बहुत काम किया है, उसे जीता जरूर देना, इज़्ज़त का सवाल है I" जनता में से ही एक सज्जन कह उठे, "अरे नेताजी बहु से इतना काम क्यों करवाते हो ?"अपर्णा  चुनाव में पूरी ताकत से तो नज़र आती है लेकिन उनका लोगों से संपर्क न के बराबर है क्योकि या तो वह बारे नेताओं से घिरी रहती हैं या फिर हटो-हटो करती सिक्योरिटी से I


Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bari Didi versus Choti Bahu

By Dilip Awasthi


Tables have turned for Lucknow Cant seat in this Vidhan Sabha election. This seat has been shuttling between the BJP and the Congress in the past couple of elections. Congress won it in 2012 the candidate who qon it for the Congress is contesting as a BJP nominee. On the other hand Samajwadi Party, which has had almost no say here, is contesting as BJP's main rival with Congress support of course. Comp;icated isn't it ?


Let's first add a little more to your confusion. The two women contestants are reffered by the voters as "Bari Didï" and "Choti Bahu". One is daughter of a former heavy weight UP chief minister and the other is daughter-in-law of another former chief minister and also step sister-in-law of the present chief minister. Is politics just a dynastic affair?


Enough of puzzles, welcome to the contest between Rita Bahuguna Joshi (67), daughter of Hemwati Nanadan Bahuguna, the sitting Congress MLA from this seat who has crossed over to the BJP and Aparna (Bisht) Yadav (26), Mulayam Singh Yadav's daughter-in-law and SP candidate, who is mostly surrounded by Congress leaders when she is campaigning. Rita Bahuguna Joshi is a seasoned politician, and is a professor at the University of Allahabad. She has been a Congress leader for last 24 years and has held positions of Mayor of Allahabad, National President of Mahila Congress (2003-2007) and State president of Congress (2007-2012). She joined BJP in 2016. For her five year term she has really worked hard and has nursed her constituency well.


Aparna Yadav, on the other hand is Mulayam Singh's "Choti Bahu". It starts and ends here. After her initial schooling in Lucknow, she studied in London where Prateek, Mulayam Singh's second son from his second wife was also studying. Both got involved in an affair and later got married. Akhilesh,  Mulayam's elder son from his first wife, and Prateek are like two poles of a magnet. They repel and never meet. Even in family function one arrives but the other leaves just in time. The Choti Bahu also does her part. She goes and publicly touches BJP leader Rajnath Singh's feet, issues statements which make chief minister Akhilesh cringe and finds Congress leaders more amicable than the SP bandwagon. Aparna started working in this constituency a little late as she was not sure that she would get SP's ticket though her father-in-law had announced it a couple of months ago.


In the 2012, Rita Joshi won this seat as Congress candidate by a comfortable margin of 21,000 votes against BJP. This time around, Joshi has herself switched loyalty and is contesting as a BJP candidate. This seat with 1.73 lakh voters is dominated by around 78,000 Brahmins, 36,000 Thakurs and a significant Pahari (Hill) population. Rita Bahuguna Joshi is a Pahari Brahmin and Aparna in her maiden days was a Pahari Thakur.


A high-pitched campaign is on for this seat which will go to polls next Sunday.        

चुनाव चौराहों तक उतरी पारिवारिक कलह


 दिलीप अवस्थी 


मुलायम परिवार की भितरघात अब महल से निकल कर चुनावी  चौराहों पर आ गयी है I चाचा -भतीजे के बीच शीतयुद्ध अब मुखर हो चला है I मुखिया मुलायम सिंह बस मूक दर्शक बने कभी अपने भाई तो कभी अपनी छोटी बहु को रिझाने में जुटे रहते हैं I उनकी तरफ से अखिलेश के हिस्से में लताड़  ही आती है I 


अब आप  एक बार इटावा और उसके आसपास लगे पोस्टरों  को निहारिये बात साफ़ हो जाएगी I  पोस्टर में या तो शिवपाल सिंह नज़र आएंगेया  शिवपाल और मुलायम I न तो मुख्यमंत्री अखिलेश का कहीं पता है और न ही किसी और नेता का I  हाँ सपा की सायकिल जरूर नज़र आएगी I 


पिछले दो दिनों से जसवंतनगर सीट, जहाँ से शिवपाल चुनाव लड़ रहे हैं, का मुलायम सिंह ने सघन दौरा किया और घर घर जाकर अपने भाई के लिए वोट मांगे I  कई चुनावी सभाएं संबोधित करते हुए मुलायम ने शिवपाल को भारी मतों से जिताने कीअपील की I  यहाँ तक कहा की समझ लेना मैं खुद चुनाव लड़ रहा हूँ I 


यह भी कहने से मुलायम नहीं चुके कीसरकार तो सपा की ही थी लेकिन अगर कोई नाराज़गी हो तो भूल जाना, माफ़ कर देना I  क्या करें हम तो अखिलेश के मंत्रियों से लोगों के काम करने की चिरौरी ही करते रहे पर इनमंत्रियों ने कुछ नहीं किया I  अखिलेश से भी शिकायत की और जब शिवपाल को हटाया तो हमने बहुत समझाया पर बात बेकार गयी I   अब क्या करें वह भी तो हमारा लड़का ही है I 


उधरलखनऊ की कैंट सीट से भाजपा की रीता बहुगुणा जोशी के खिलाफ चुनाव लड़ रही अखिलेश के सौतेले भाई प्रतीक की पत्नी अपर्णा (बिष्ट)) यादव भीअपने चर्चित बयानों के कारण सपा के कोपभाजन का सामना कर रही हैं I  पहाड़ी ठाकुर परिवार से सम्बंधित अपर्णा ने अपनी चुनावी सभा में कह डाला कि  देश में अब आरक्षण जातिगत न हो कर स्थितिगत यानी गरीबी आधारित होना चाहिए I बात अपने आप में काफी दमदार है पर सपा की राजनीति  के खिलाफ बैठती है I  पार्टी ने भी उन्हें आदेश दे दिया की वह नीतिगत मामलों परबयान न देकर केवल अपने चुनाव तक ही सीमित रहें I 


मुलायम की बहु के लिए इस सीट से जीतना आसान नहीं होगा क्यों की कांग्रेस की पूर्व अध्यक्ष रीता बहुगुणा जोशी यहाँ से पिछली बार जीती थी I  इस बार वह भाजपा की प्रत्याशी हैं i इस क्षेत्र मेंउन्होंने काफीमेहनत की है जबकि अपर्णा बिलकुल नया चेहरा हैं I मुलायम सिंह की बहु होने के बाद भी उनके मंच पर कांग्रेसी नेता ज्यादा और सपाई नेता कम नज़र आते हैं I  हालाँकि इटावा से आकर ससुरजी अपर्णा के लिए भी चुनावी सभा करने वाले हैं I 


Monday, February 13, 2017

ग़लतफहमी न पैदा कर दे पहला चरण


 

दिलीप अवस्थी 

भारतीय जनता  पार्टी  11   फरवरी को हुए  पश्चिमी  उत्तर प्रदेश  में हुए मतदान से  बहुत प्रसन्न नज़र आ  रही है I भाजपा  के रास्जतरिया अध्यक्ष अमित शाह तो यहाँ तक कह रहें हैं कि  पहले चरण मैं उनकी पार्टी को 50  से अधिक सीटें मिल जाएँगी I लेकिन पहले चरण को देख कर भाजपा ग़लतफहमी न पाले तो उसके लिए अच्छा रहेगा I 


पहले चरण मैं पश्चिमी उत्तर प्रदेश की कुल73 सीटों पर व् मतदान हुआ I यह इलाका ऐसा हैं जहाँ समाजवादी पार्टी की कभी भी पकड़ नहीं रही है I  कांग्रेस पार्टी भी यहाँपूरे प्रदेश की तरह कमजोर ही है Iपॉचमनचल मैंमुख्यतः भाजपा, बसपा और राष्ट्रीय लोकदल (रालोद ) मैं संघर्ष होता रहा हैं I कई प्रदेश नेताओं की बगावत और मायावती के अकेले पड़ने के बाद बसपा हर कहीं कमजोर पड़ी है I रालोद का भी प्रभाव कुछ ही जिलों मैं है I ऐसे मैं पश्चमी उत्तर प्रदेश मैं भाजपा का बोलबाला हो जाये तो कोईबड़ी बात नहीं है I 


इसी तरहबुंदेलखंड की21 सीटों पर भी सपा की साइकिलपंक्चर ही हो जाती है I यहाँ बसपा का बोलबोला रहता है और भाजपा टक्कर देती है I शहरी सीटों पर तो भाजपा का जोर रहता है लेकिन ग्रामीणक्षेत्रों मैं बसपा का हाथी बिना रोकटोक के चलता है I कभी यहाँ कांग्रेस भी दम से लड़ा करती थी लेकिन अब हालात बस गुज़ारे लायक हैं I सपा तो यहाँ की लड़ाई में नंबर दो से चार पर रहती है I 


लेकिन प्रदेश की असली लड़ाई तो पूर्वी उत्तर प्रदेश, मध्य उत्तर प्रदेश और रुमें होती है I  इनक्षेत्रों की309 सीटों में जिसने बढ़त बना ली वह सिकंदर बन जाएगा I भाजपा बिना मुख्यमंत्री के चेहरे और सशक्त राज्य नेताओं के चुनाव में उतरी है I  जबकि भाजपा ने लोगों का खोया विश्वास काफीहद तक जीता है, उसके लिए यहाँ लड़ाई आसान नहीं होगी I  बसपा तो पहले से ही कुम्हलाई हुई है और उसकी सोशल इंजीनियरिंग भी उसका साथ नहीं दे रही है I यूँ तो बसपा ने मुसलमानो को101 सीटों पर लड़ाया है लेकिन यहडर कि मायावती चौथी बार भी भाजपा से हाथ मिला सकती हैं, बसपा से मुस्लिमों को दूर रख सकता है I 


इसके विपरीत अखिलेश कीस्वच्छ छवि , युवा हौसला और कुछ अच्छे कार्यों को धरातल पर लाने का जोश उन्हें निश्चित ही लड़ाई में थोड़ी बढ़त देता है I वैसे  तो  गणित का चुनाव में ज्यादा मतलब नहीं होता लेकिन कांग्रेस से मिलने के बाद दोनों पार्टियों का2012 का मत प्रतिशत41 % हो जाता है. पिछले चुनाव में सपा को 29. 5 % वोट मिले थे तो उसने224 सीटें मिली थीं जबकि बसपा ने25 % मत पाकर 80  सीटें जीती और भाजपा ने15 % वोट लेकर47 सीटों पर जीत दर्ज की थी I सपा पूर्ण बहुमत पाकर 77 सीटों पर संघर्ष में दूसरे स्थान पर और 56 सीटों पर तीसरे स्थान पर रही थी I 


2014 में मोदीजी के उद्भव के बाद भाजपा की स्थिति में फर्क जरूर आया हैलेकिन  अकेले उनकी छवि के सहारे विधान सभा का जीतना आसान न होगा I  फिर नोटबंदी से फैली नाराज़गी भी भाजपा को झेलनी पड़  सकती है I  प्रदेश में अखिलेश राज के पांच वर्षों में भाजपा की निष्क्रियता भी उसे लाभ तो नहीं ही दे पायेगी I  ऐसे में अखिलेश का पलड़ा भारी पड़े तो कोई बड़ी बात न होगी I 



 

             

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Misplaced Buoyancy in BJP



 By Dilip Awasthi
Buoyancy in the BJP after the polling in the first phase of UP elections on might be a little misplaced. Even party's national president Amit Shah seemed jubilant considering the high 64% voting in Western UP which went to polls on February 11. "BJP is sweeping west UP", he said  in an election meeting for the second phase yesterday.

But considering the fact that western UP or the Jat Land as the region is commonly refereed to has never been Samajwadi Party's happy hunting ground. Eversince Comgress paralysis in UP, the contest in this region has been restricted between Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), BJP and BSP. The BSP finds itself on a slippery wicket this time as the party has been deserted by most of its top state leaders.

BJP is fighting for honors in this region mainly against BSP and RLD. The leaders think that the additional 5% turnout would in a big way go in their favour. The RLD had contested 43 seats in the hardcore Jatland and had won 8 out of them in 2012 assembly elections. The BSP abd BJP contest all of the 73 seats in this region. Considering the overall scenerio, BJP gains in this region are highly likely  but in the final run how much this would matter is the mute question.

Like the Jatland, Samajwadi Party has had a poor run in the 21 seats of the Bundelkhand region as well. It is in banking on Congress candidates, who had some say in the past, in these regions. Nut in Bundelkhand also BJP and BSP will fight for the honors.

Coming to the three core regions - East UP, Rohilkhand and Central UP, the SP roots are well entrenched. BJP and also the BSP would need whatever they have got to fight the SP in these regions. The 309 seats in these region of the total 403 seats will decide who will rule UP. 

The BJP lacks a chiefministerial face though it has a fair amount of mind share of voters.  The BSP, sans some of its top state leaders, may not get as much Muslim support as it thinks it will (101 Muslims candidates)  because of the fear that Mayawati would join hands withe BJP for the fourth time. Both these party's  might find the going tough. Akhilesh on the other hand is backed by his own image, his youthful energy and some good works he has done in the state, would  give them a run for their money.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Lucknow Santa Claus is not well


By Dilip Awasthi
Lucknow’s own Santa Claus is not well. The winning smile has turned into quizzical wide-eyed gaze. The eloquent, witty orator who could hold huge crowds across the country spellbound now makes futile attempts to mumble something but then raises his hands helplessly and quietly slumps back into his wheel chair. This Christmas, Atal Bihari Vajpayee will be 86.

All those politicians and friends, who are still in touch, recall their recent meetings with him to remember him fondly. Says Lalji Tandon, who succeeded him as the local BJP MP, “ He takes his time to recognize you but cannot talk coherently.” Tandon, his campaign manager in all elections, met him just a fortnight ago. He stared at Tandon for a while and then just laughed. “Doctors don’t allow many meetings unless senior leaders turn up”, says Shiv Kumar, his private secretary for 40 years, who still runs the ex-PM’s residential office. “There are 20-30 visitors each day,”says Shiv Kumar.

Lucknow has been dear to him always. Here he won five consecutive elections from 1991 to 2004. Just a couple of public meetings on each occasion fetched him huge victory margins. In 2004 he won with a margin of 37% votes against Samajwadi Party’s Madhu Gupta. His electoral opponents have been heavy-weights like Dr Karan Singh, Raj Babbar and Muzzaffar Ali. In 1996 he won from Gandhinagar (Gujarat) also but retained Lucknow as his seat.

As an MP from the state capital and as the Prime Minister, Vajpayee indeed proved to be Lucknow’s Santa Claus. Developmental works worth over Rs 25,000 crore guaranteed a new sheen to Lucknow. Most foundation plaques would display his name most projects including four to six-laned highways development, metro or memo rail concepts and projects, a web of power substations, several beautification schemes bear his stamp. For almost two decade (1991-2009) Atalji, as he was fondly referred to, has been integral part of Lucknow’s life.

Rajesh Pande, a former BJP MLA and Atalj’s election manager in Lucknow, fondly remembers his famous repartee during 1996 Lok Sabha election campaign. When somebody presented him a garland during his election campaign, “Arey bhai haar nahin, mai jeet lene aayaa hoon…” Vajpayee could devastate his critics with his oratory skills. During 1998 elections Jan Sangh leader Balraj Madhok called Vajpayee a “dual-faced politicians”, a “slippery person”and a “liar” in a campaign meeting in the city. Journalists rushed to Atalji for his reaction. There emerged the well-known mischevious smile, a pause and then, “….wo mere bahut senior hein….” And everybody in the room broke into laughter.

Atalji last visited Lucknow in October 2006, this time on a wheel chair. His health was failing but he still campaigned for BJP mayoral candidate Dinesh Sharma, His visit did turn the election in Sharma’s favour. Recalls Mayor Sharma, who met him a month ago, “I will always be indebted to him that despite his physical condition, he campaigned for me.” Present Lucknow MP Lalji Tandon contested and won the 2009 elections on Atalji’s signed appeal to Lucknowites.

These days, Atalji’s days, tells Shiv Kumar, are restricted to his Delhi house. Doctors are in attendance of the former PM throughout. He goes through a physiotherapy session in the morning and a general check-up in the evening. He watches TV for a while in the evening a meets senior leaders if there is an appointment. Shiv Kumar says L.K. Advani, Nitin Gatkari, Rajnath Singh keep visiting Atalji. But for infection he suffered in February 2009 for he was put on the ventilator in the ICU of AIIMS, there has been no serious cause of concern. He has lost weight. His responses are dulled and senses are failing. It all is age-related, says Tandon. But the legendary statesman, who could praise Nehru or Indira Gandhi and upset the RSS-BJP cadres, can still smile….

Congress working on Rahul formula for ‘viable’ candidates


By Dilip Awasthi
Lucknow:
Rahul Gandhi’s grand plan for Uttar Pradesh is unfolding now. The Congress general secretary’s handpicked AICC volunteers have launched a massive hunt to short-list ‘winnable’ candidates for 2012 U.P. assembly elections. All these volunteers are drawn from different states so that only ‘merit’ prevails. They will report directly to Rahul.

The 10 volunteers have been allotted around 40 assembly constituencies each so that all the 403 seats are covered. They are traveling through their respective areas and interacting at the grass-root level. Their brief is to suggest a panel of three to five candidates for each seat in the order of `viability’. They have to go into the logistics of past elections and make final recommendations in the prescribed AICC format. The deadline is March 31, 2011.

The AICC instructions issued to these observers by general secretary Digvijaya Singh, also incharge of U.P., categorically state: “You have to submit your report directly to Shri Rahul Gandhi in a closed cover marked as `Confidential’….. The report is not to be shared with any other in the AICC or PCC.” Explains Singh, “The idea is to let Rahulji have an unadulterated feel of the ground.”

The observers have been drawn from different states. Three are from MP, two each from Mumbai and Delhi and one each from Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat. The instructions say: “Instead of meeting the workers in the circuit house, you should try to meet/contact commen people and take their opinion about the most viable candidates.” The observers are supposed to attend village chaupals (informal meetings) organized by the prospective candidates and make their assessment based on the spot feedback.

Most of these observers have already finished the first round. Some are into their third leg and already have had interim interaction with Rahul Gandhi. Muzzaffar Hussain, a Congress MLC from Mumbai has held more than 80 chaupals in eight eastern U.P. districts between November 15 and December 16. The district Congress President, the MP, MLAs of the area are invariably present in these chaupals. Says PL Punia Congress MP from Bara Banki, who has been attending these chaupals, “ You cannot fib in these chaupals. If you are popular it shows.”

The exercise has been happening simultaneously in other parts. Says Congress Legislature Party chief Pramod Tewari, “ The idea is to finish this homework and have final lists ready by May, 2011.” But obviously these AICC observers are having a tough time navigating through vested interests, pulls and pushes of the local leaders. Congress tickets have been traditionally decided through lobbying or pressure tactics. Says PCC chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi, “ This exercise will give us a fair and unbiased base to work on. The intention is to get the best possible candidates.”

The last point of the AICC instructions is even more unnerving for the local leaders. The circular states: “If there is a powerful and popular person, who is not as yet with the Congress Party, you should try to win him over….”