By Dilip Awasthi
After analysing why Daulat Queen Mayawati should not become the UP chief minister in 2017, it is time to figure out why she will not get to power this time. There has been lot of speculation in the media whether Mayawati's BSP was the dark horse in the run for UP Vidhan Sabha. Dark, yes but Mayawati will not even prove to be a mare in these elections.
Given that her honeymoon with social engineering is over, Mayawati is unlikely to get upper caste specially Brahmin votes (around 13%) which played a crucial role in bringing her to power in 2007. The Muslims voters (18%) were also crucial during that period as they were disillusioned by Mulayam Singh regime. They supported her in a big way and that is how she got 206 seats and 30.42% votes.
The fact that she has formed the government in UP thrice by shaking hands with the BJP in UP, has put off the Muslim voters in a big way. Though she fielded around 101 Muslim candidates as against 70 odd last time, Muslims have a clear aversion to the BSP as they do not want a situation of BJP attaining power in UP as well. There could be stray cases where they might favour a BSP Muslim candidate wherever the SP-Congress combine is not in a position to take on the BJP.
Given this situation, Mayawati is left with just Chamar votes ( 40% of dalit votes) - a situation reminiscent of her "Tilak, Taraaju aur Talwar...."daays. Most of the other dalits like pasis, mauryas etc.. vote against the chamar majority as far as the dalit politics goes. Add to this partial Muslim votes and Mayawati's tally should be around 60-70 seats at best. He chances in the elections have been curtailed significantly before the start of the elections because BSP stalwarts like Swami Prasad Maurya (BSP Legislature Party chief), RK Chaudhry, Ramveer Upadhyay and half a dozen other left the party and joined hands with rivals. She was just left with Naseemuddin Siddiqui, who is ailing, as the only mainstream leader.
Her only chance to success is if BJP bails her out again. Given the attitudes of PM Modi and President Amit Shah, it is highly unlikely that they would agree to unpredictable Mayawati becoming the CM of the state specially with 2019 Lok Sabha elections not far away. Mayawati has used lot of venom against PM Modi and Amit Shah during her campaign.
Though politicians shrug off these barbs exchanged during election campaigns, BJP will grope to find logics for supporting Mayawati yet again. The only political logic can be keeping Akhilesh-Rahul combine at bay or the moralistic logic would be the cliched "we-do-not-want-to-push-the-state-into-another-election".
Come March 11 and Mayawati's claims will all fall flat. But Mayawati will still stand a chance if she can find a new brother like Amit Shah on Bhaiya Duj'' after Holi.
#Mayawati, # UP elections#, #PM Modi, #Amit Shah, #Akhilesh Yadav, #BSP, #BJP
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